BackTesting Blog

As the stock market twists and turns, you might find this video handy. In it I discuss key indicators for successfully trading market turns as well as pointing out a few common pitfalls to avoid. In short, emotional trading can get us in trouble and having a disciplined, objective approach can help us stay on top of the market and stay ready to take advantage of new opportunities as they present themselves. Click here to watch video.

To learn more about trading market turns, you’re welcome to attend my free presentation on that topic at the Traders Expo Las Vegas on Nov 18, 2011.

This video outlines some of the biggest trading mistakes, including a new one courtesy of deep pools of liquidity. Click here to watch now.

To learn more about trading objectively, you’re welcome to attend my free presentations at the Traders Expo Las Vegas on Nov 18, 2011.

This MoneyShow interview highlights several things to look for to identify an excellent buying opportunity in the stock market. I recorded it in August and I think the message still holds.  Short summary as of this writing is that some of the signs were present in Oct 2011 but the market still has high valuations.

To get a current update of the state of the market, join divergence-alerts.com or attend my free presentation at the Traders Expo Las Vegas on Nov 18, 2011.

Tags: MoneyShow, TradersExpo

I back-tested oscillators for swing trading to research an article for Fidelity. The results suggest simpler is better. Right now we’re in a market that’s lower than 6 months ago, higher than 10-days ago, and moving downwards. Backtesting confirms this is likely the top of the current trading range. Read the full article back-testing oscillators here:
https://guidance.fidelity.com/viewpoints/swing-trading-indicators

Register free for The Traders Expo Las Vegas, November 16-19, 2011 at Bally’s/Paris. This event provides optimal exposure to everything needed for consistent and profitable trading in the markets! Eager-to-learn traders will discover the latest tools, technologies, and cutting-edge investment opportunities as well as experience hands-on training and invaluable interaction with successful industry veterans. Through hundreds of free workshops and interactive panel discussions, plus optional tuition-paid intensives, attendees will receive specific advice and recommendations they can use to profit the very next time they trade!

Summary of Events A plethora of quality trading education to choose from with a variety of panel presentations, workshops, and special events available exclusively at The Traders Expo Las Vegas… READ MORE		Exhibit Hall The Exhibit Hall at The Traders Expo Las Vegas is your one-stop resource to a world of trading opportunities where you will have access to leading trading products and services… READ MORE
For more information please visit www.lasvegastradersexpo.com.

Tags: Traders Expo

Several people asked for the archive for my recent TradeStation webinar. You can find it here:
https://www.tradestation.com/education/events/on-demand-webcasts/spotlight-on

Of course we have a new set of MACD Divergences now. To stay current, you can sign up for the full list of MACD divergences and MACD Histogram divergences daily on US stocks, ETFs and futures at divergence-alerts.com

Or to sample the scan output, check out the MACD Divergences on NASDAQ stocks posted on Wednesday and Friday by entering your name and email below. That adds you to an email list that gets notified of new divergences twice a week, plus a few promotional offers.

Watching the QQQ gave important clues to the market this summer.  Negative MACD Divergences on the weekly chart (top) of the QQQ showed up just before the big drop in August.   As I write, QQQ is running into overhead resistance from the old up trend line drawn on the weekly chart (top).  On the daily chart (bottom), QQQ reached up to touch the 50-day MA and fell back.  If the NASDAQ leaders retreat, I would expect the market to follow.

TradeStation Screenshot of QQQ on 09/01/2011

The small cap Russell index, shown below in charts of the e-mini TF, has not even performed as well as the NASDAQ.   You can see from the weekly chart below (top panel) the past negative divergences.  In early August TF failed to achieve new highs and MACD confirmed the weakness – a fuzzy negative divergence.  On the rebound, it is not even close to the past uptrend line.  On the daily chart (bottom), notice TF’s current inability to reach its 50-day MA like QQQ.

TradeStation Screenshot of TF on 09/01/2011

In summary, I think there could be further to go on the downside before the market gets ready for election year.

Upcoming Educational Presentations

TradeStation Strategy Network, Sept 6 at 4pm EST, Join me for a live online presentation on the latest in MACD Divergence technology. Click here to register for TradeStation Webinar

Trading Options for ProfitS (TOPS) Group Meeting, Sunnyvale CA, Sept 10 at 1pm PST. If you’re in town, feel free to attend this meeting for an extended talk on technical and fundamental indicators to get insight into the movements of the broad market.  Email RSVP to ovug (at) helpone.com

Traders Expo Las Vegas, Nov 18 2011 8am PST on MACD Divergences and 5:30pm PST on Weekend Market Status
Treat yourself to a trip to Vegas to sharpen your trading skills! Click here to register for Traders Expo

Tags: MACD, MACD divergence

photo by *clarity* on flickr

Right now many are playing the markets with anxious eyes and nervous stomachs – perhaps as it should be! One tool that I’ve been using lately to help get a sense of the markets is bond yield spreads.
For more info, check out this short video interview or attend the MoneyShow on Aug 11 for a presentation and demonstration.

Tags: market internals, MoneyShow, stock market, yield spreads

In this MoneyShow Interview, I highlight four things that every active investor or trader should watch to stay informed about the market status.

The “big 4″ are:

• Situation
• Swing
• Sentiment
• Sincerity

Looking at market indicators in each area every week helps me to stay on top of the market.

You can join me – live – in reviewing the market status at the MoneyShow San Francisco. During this presentation, I’ll show you exactly which market internals,  indicators,  and data I’m checking each week.   Plus, you’ll learn how you can do it too!
Weekend Prep—A Checklist for Market Status

Thursday, August 11 • 10:40 am – 11:25 am

OptionsHouse gave me this Dell Monitor for opening an account with them.   Its very sweet!

I got so excited that I arranged for my company to become an affiliate and offer these monitors too.