ETF Rotation at a High Level

As I’m preparing for the MoneyShow San Francisco, I want to share a few thoughts on ETF rotation:
Click here to read my high-level article on ETF Rotation

Beyond the high-level introduction, I am working on a detailed comparison of three strategies:

  • rotation to the ETFs with the strongest performance
  • a basic diversified portfolio
  • advanced portfolio management techniques

Should be interesting!

Attend the MoneyShow San Francisco — free! — to see my latest back test results of ETF Rotation strategies.

How Stock Market Buying Opportunities Look

This MoneyShow interview highlights several things to look for to identify an excellent buying opportunity in the stock market. I recorded it in August and I think the message still holds.  Short summary as of this writing is that some of the signs were present in Oct 2011 but the market still has high valuations.

To get a current update of the state of the market, join divergence-alerts.com or attend my free presentation at the Traders Expo Las Vegas on Nov 18, 2011.

Traders Expo in New York City

The Traders Expo exhibit hall consumed two floors of the Marriot at Times Square and drew a large crowd. People were generally upbeat and eager to learn.

My main goals, besides presenting, were to connect with the key software vendors.  Here’s my notes:

Fidelity Wealth Lab — Fidelity always has a big presence and this show was no exception.  I want to assess the demand for a MACD Divergence detector in WealthLab.   Please leave a comment or email me directly if you want to use WealthLab to backtest MACD Divergences between the indicator and price.

Ninja Trader – also considering a port of my MACD Divergence Detectors to their platform because it is free.   Again, please contact me if this interests you.  At the Traders Expo, they gave a nice demo of their drag n drop interface for creating strategies, plus how to just write in C++.

TradeStation – their lounge is an awesome place to get questions answered, even sit down with a programmer.  In particular, I went there to learn more about concurrency in version 9.0 and how it affects my MACD divegence scans.

Worden – they are now demo’ing new tc2000 which is a combination of TeleChart, StockFinder, and freestockcharts.com.  Will need to brush up on PCF and be ready to port once they add the  language constructs necessary to detect MACD divergences there.  Meanwhile, StockFinder from Worden runs my divergence detectors.

What’s New:  CurrenSee – a fleet of 100 currency traders and software to let you allocate percentages of your account to trade with your favorite traders.

Best Give-Aways:  CitiFX giving hardback copies of New Market Wizards book for filling out a 5 question survey.  The iPad remains the big drawing prize of choice and many vendors give their own product as a prize.  The drawing prize in my session was a copy of  The Truth About MACD video series.

ETF and Stock Index Analysis at SF MoneyShow – Webcast

 

Thursday, August 19

Gain insight into where CTIUS, the Cleantech Index™, is going via a live technical analysis of its component stocks. In this session, we identify the key movers out of the 78 stocks in the index, and examine each of the strong leaders and the worst of the laggards. This is your chance to learn a bottom-up method of analyzing an index. You will walk away with a potential buy/sell list plus ideas about where to set protective stop losses. Ultimately, we form an opinion of where the Cleantech Index™ is headed over the intermediate and long-term investing horizons.

3:20 pm – 4:05 pm PDT

Dear Fellow Investors,
With today’s unique market conditions, it is especially valuable to have expert guidance as you seek to grow your assets and position your portfolio strategically in this new era of investing.And it is with that in mind that I proudly invite you to tune in for this LIVE Webcast presentation, which promises to help you gain knowledge and critical insights that you’ll need to make smarter, more informed investment decisions throughout the coming months and beyond.

Viewing is free, so please click the link for more details and to register for this and other LIVE Webcast events, which will come to you from the upcoming MoneyShow San Francisco! I look forward to connecting with you!

Sincerely,

Jackie Ann Patterson

Editor, BackTesting Report

Please make your arrangements today to join me and individual investors from around the world forLIVE Webcast events from The MoneyShow • San Francisco 2010—coming soon to MoneyShow.com!

 

Exit Strategies for Swing Traders Workshop on June 12 at 8am PST

traders expo los angeles 2010

Exit Strategies for Swing Traders on 6/12/2010, 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM PST 
This workshop examines key sell strategies for swing traders, including stop losses, profit targets, and more.  The material is drawn from the back test results published in the Exit Strategies reports.   The real bonus for attending live is analysis of your favorite markets.   Please bring the tickers of any stocks you are swing trading and we will evaluate different exits for them using end-of-day data in the session.    The Traders Expo is held at the Pasadena Convention Center, near Los Angeles California.

Click here for complimentary registration to attend in person.

For free live webcast of the Exit Strategies workshop, click here.

On Knowing When To Sell

SPY Sell and Hold Signals

I want to share a couple key ideas with you.  I just answered all the write-in survey questions from the recent MoneyShow and if there was one theme, it was “how to know when to sell?”

The truth is that there is no one-size-fits all answer to that question because it depends on your goals and outlook. 

This particular moment in the market illustrates that really well.  (See chart above)  Short-term strategies such as price crossing the 20-day moving average and even intermediate-term strategies such as MACD Divergence have long since given a “sell” signal. The aggressive traders among us – myself included — have sold short and are now watchful of an opportunity to cover.

 I also follow a longer-term long-only strategy for my retirement funds.  The SPY below its 200-day MA tells me not to buy.  But is it a sell signal?  No, according to the 50/200 MA pair because the 50 MA has not crossed down through the 200 MA to give the Death Cross signal.    

 How will it play out this time?  I don’t know.  What I do know is how the strategies mentioned above have performed over the last fourteen years.  That data helped me to make the decisions about which signals to follow and with what capital.

 This brings me to the other frequently-asked question at the show:  “What is BackTesting Report?”

 BackTesting Report started as a series of e-books about the historical performance of various technical indicators and trading strategies.  I began the work because I wanted to know – for my own trading – what I might get out of these strategies, and which I might use for buy/sell decisions.

 BackTesting Report has expanded beyond the reports to videos but the concept is still the same:  to provide the data  to understand the trade-offs between the various technical strategies and pick the best strategy.

What about you?  How do you know when to sell?