Archive for the ‘Technical Strategies’ Category

TradeStation Webinar and Update

September 16th, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in MACD, Technical Strategies

Several people asked for the archive for my recent TradeStation webinar. You can find it here:
https://www.tradestation.com/education/events/on-demand-webcasts/spotlight-on

Of course we have a new set of MACD Divergences now. To stay current, you can sign up for the full list of MACD divergences and MACD Histogram divergences daily on US stocks, ETFs and futures at divergence-alerts.com

Or to sample the scan output, check out the MACD Divergences on NASDAQ stocks posted on Wednesday and Friday by entering your name and email below. That adds you to an email list that gets notified of new divergences twice a week, plus a few promotional offers.

Watching the QQQs

September 1st, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Technical Strategies, Uncategorized

Watching the QQQ gave important clues to the market this summer.  Negative MACD Divergences on the weekly chart (top) of the QQQ showed up just before the big drop in August.   As I write, QQQ is running into overhead resistance from the old up trend line drawn on the weekly chart (top).  On the daily chart (bottom), QQQ reached up to touch the 50-day MA and fell back.  If the NASDAQ leaders retreat, I would expect the market to follow.

QQQ on Sept 1, 2011 - Weekly and Daily Charts

TradeStation Screenshot of QQQ on 09/01/2011

The small cap Russell index, shown below in charts of the e-mini TF, has not even performed as well as the NASDAQ.   You can see from the weekly chart below (top panel) the past negative divergences.  In early August TF failed to achieve new highs and MACD confirmed the weakness – a fuzzy negative divergence.  On the rebound, it is not even close to the past uptrend line.  On the daily chart (bottom), notice TF’s current inability to reach its 50-day MA like QQQ.

TF Weekly and Daily Charts as of Sept 1, 2011

TradeStation Screenshot of TF on 09/01/2011

In summary, I think there could be further to go on the downside before the market gets ready for election year.

Upcoming Educational Presentations

TradeStation Strategy Network, Sept 6 at 4pm EST, Join me for a live online presentation on the latest in MACD Divergence technology. Click here to register for TradeStation Webinar

Trading Options for ProfitS (TOPS) Group Meeting, Sunnyvale CA, Sept 10 at 1pm PST. If you’re in town, feel free to attend this meeting for an extended talk on technical and fundamental indicators to get insight into the movements of the broad market.  Email RSVP to ovug (at) helpone.com

Traders Expo Las Vegas, Nov 18 2011 8am PST on MACD Divergences and 5:30pm PST on Weekend Market Status
Treat yourself to a trip to Vegas to sharpen your trading skills! Click here to register for Traders Expo

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Trends and Reversals in Trading

June 3rd, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Technical Strategies

Back in Feb 2011 at the Traders Expo New York, I recorded this interview about Trends and Reversals.  Since that time, I’ve researched several additional ways to check out the strength of the trend, otherwise known as market internals.    I’ll be talking about them in depth in a presentation at the Traders Expo Dallas on June 18, 2011 called Weekend Market Status.

One of the topics is yield spreads between corporate and treasury issues.   This can have an impact for stock traders and investors, not just the bond market.   Yesterday, the yield spreads headed off in an ominous direction for the stock market.

MACD Back-Tests for Fidelity Investments

April 29th, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in MACD

You can read the results of my recent back-tests of MACD for Fidelity Investments in this article: https://guidance.fidelity.com/viewpoints/measuring-the-macd .
For more information see http://www.truthaboutmacd.com

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Commodity Negative Divergences, My Sched D, and You

April 16th, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in MACD

Without getting too personal…
I just sent off my taxes — yes, I had to write a couple checks — but the good news is that my schedule D was much EASIER to fill out than previous years.

Before I’ve struggled to compile huge lists of trades across mulitple accounts. If you actively trade, you probably know what I mean — many hours work, and even when I’ve hired accountants for my taxes they’ve wanted ME to do the gritty work of listing all the trades!

But this year I breezed through sched D! I took fewer trades because I relied more on MACD divergence and the divergence count to target higher-potential times to buy. ( To tell you the truth, sched D is one of the reasons I went for this trading strategy.)

Now I want to share with you the means to simplify YOUR schedule D and, more importantly, FOCUS on times when trades are more likely to work out in your favor.

Check out an example from April 15, 2011 of the divergence alerts commentary. We’ve been seeing lots of different commodities — especially energy and metals but also some of the broader commodity indices — showing negative divergences on the daily charts. On Fridays, we get the weekly analysis and starting to see some of those negative divergences move up to the weekly charts.
http://divergence-alerts.com/commentary/weekly-commentary/commodity-neg-divs-bubble-up-to-weekly-macd-div-alerts/

If you would like to receive alerts like this, plus get all The Truth About MACD educational materials as bonuses, become a member before April 18, 2011 at
http://divergence-alerts.com/my-membership-options-page/

MACD Interview – Top 3 MACD Hints for Traders

April 8th, 2011 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Classes, MACD

trading_interview_1_feb11
Check out my MACD interview at the New York Traders Expo to learn what I consider the most important aspects of trading with the MACD.

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Technical Analysis of SPY

September 13th, 2010 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Technical Strategies

The premise of technical analysis is that the price carries information about a market’s future potential as well as its past. Since price is numerical, we can use mathematics to aid our analysis. For example, a moving average of price smooths its fluctuations and allows us to focus on the overall trend. Today the S&P500 opened with a gap above its 200-day Moving Average. The chart below shows that with the dotted blue line as the 200-day MA. Technical analysis regards this as a bullish sign.

With an ETF such as SPY we have an opportunity to look under the hood to see how well its component stocks support it. Continuing with our example, we can check how many of the S&P500 stocks are above their 200-day Moving Averages. See the screenshot from Telechart below.

We see that 283 of 500 stocks in SPY are above their 200-day MA. That’s slightly better than half and a terrific improvement from last month.
This is one example of the type of analysis that you can do on stocks in an ETF. To see more, check out the eMoneyShow webcast and chat room on Sept 15, 11am EDT. Click here to register.

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Managing Your Exits

August 6th, 2010 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Exit Strategies

Click Here to Watch the Video on Managing Your Exitsmoneyshow_managing_your_exits_07-12-10_jackie_ann_patterson

Karen Gibbs (K):    Is it different for investors versus traders?

Jackie Ann Patterson (J):  Yes, I really think it is.  I think that the time frame, the mindset that you start out with has a big effect on the type of exit strategy that you’d like to use.  Certainly if you’re entering the market with an idea of holding a position for over a year, getting favorable long-term tax treatment, you’re going to want to do something different than a swing trader. If you’re a swing trader entering the market, and you want to get gains not after a year, but after one day, or four days, that’s going to prompt you to think about exits a little bit differently.

K:    What are the key elements of a trading strategy?

 J:   Well, I think there’s two really big key pieces to a trading strategy or to an exit strategy, in particular, and one is how do you handle losses??  When do you cut losses short?  What sort of method will you use to limit your loss and be able to preserve your capital and your peace of mind in order to be able to trade again?  So that’s one side.

The second side, I think, is how to capture gains, when to take profits. It’s important to think about that also as part of the exit strategy.

K:  How do you suggest limiting the losses?

J:    Well, I think there’s a couple different ways to limit the losses.  As far as exit strategies go, looking at a particular point, a particular price, whether you set that in the market as a stop loss or keep that in mind, that’s one way to do it.

The other way is to have a particular signal if the conditions change.  That could be another way to limit losses if somebody has, for example, gotten in when price has been going up, has been passing moving averages, if price starts going down, passing those same moving averages, that might be a signal to get out, even if the position has not yet become profitable.

K:    And ringing the cash register, taking those gains.

J:    Yes, yes.  I think that’s the happy part of trading, and it’s also a part that may not get as much attention as it fully deserves, to think through what sort of situations will be the time to ring the cash register, to get a paycheck.  Does a person want to set a target and exit when the price reaches a certain point, whether that point is a dollar amount or whether that’s a certain configuration of indicators, or is a person more inclined to let winners run and do something?  Say, for example, trailing a stop along with the price as the price goes up, to match that with a trailing stop price, and in that way protect profits using a stop, as well as limiting losses.

K:  So you have to kind of match it to your personality or style?

J:   Yes.  I think that’s really a key thing, is to match the exit strategy to your trading style and to your personality and to your temperament and that will give you a boundary of the different sorts of exits you might consider. 

For example, the long-term trader might be more interested in strategies that let the winners run and go on longer versus a short-term trader might be more interested in setting some very near-term targets than taking profits, but within that context, I think it’s also important to understand the trading strategy and understand the potential performance of the trading strategy, and use that hard data to make decisions about which strategy might work out best for you.

K:    Jackie, thanks for your insight.

J:   Okay.  Thank you.

K: My guest has been Jackie Ann Patterson.  You’re watching TheMoneyShow.com Video Network.

Bulls and Bears Fight Over S&P500

July 12th, 2010 by jackieannpatterson | 1 Comment | Filed in MACD, Moving Average, Technical Strategies

The stock market is often said to be a fight between the bulls and the bears.   Technical analysis aims to help traders understand market behavior by studying the price action which is akin to the tracks left by the various market animals.

In last week’s market action, we can see the bull and the bear squaring off as two powerful and infrequent “tracks” showed up on the S&P 500.

Representing the bulls, we see a MACD positive divergence on the daily chart of the S&P 500, as shown in the StockFinder screenshot on the left.

Representing the bears, we have a Death Cross on the daily chart of the S&P 500, as shown in the StockFinder screenshot on the right.

Of course, as traders the battle is of more than abstract interest — our success depends on siding with the winners as much as possible and protecting ourselves from losses when we find ourselves on the wrong side of the trade.
 
To find out more, here are three complimentary resources:
 
Focus on MACD with my Las Vegas MoneyShow video
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4992F8531A3543A4996DBB467BEA4DD71&t=4&scode=018890
 
Learn about Golden Cross and Death Cross in my other video archive from Las Vegas
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=79DD627F1C5F445880FED3F85C32AB041&t=4&scode=018890
 
As general resource, check out TraderPlanet.com   It provides market commentary, charts and quotes, news, educational videos, live webcasts and many more services absolutely free of charge.  I will be a contributing writer to TraderPlanet very soon. If you register with TraderPlanet.com, as a thank you gift, you’ll immediately receive access to their trading ebook library, where you can select among several trading topics and authors. Register here: http://www.traderplanet.com/freebooks/636

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Death Cross on the S&P500

July 7th, 2010 by jackieannpatterson | No Comments | Filed in Exit Strategies, Technical Strategies

The S&P500 recently gave a Death Cross signal.  As you might guess from the name, the Death Cross is generally considered bearish.  

Read the Golden Crosses and Stop Losses BackTesting Report to learn about a trading strategy which relies on the Death Cross as a sell signal.

Watch my MoneyShow presentation which includes the Death Cross:

 

Exit Strategies for Active Investors

Here’s a good  video with live charts about the death cross, what it is and how to trade it: 

Adam Hewison on Death Cross

(the next article about forward-testing tools will be posted on this blog on Friday)

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